Scenarios, Opportunities, and Challenges for a Resilient Government

In 2021 BPK published its first strategic foresight to provide an overview to the public and government of Indonesia of the array of possibilities due to the COVID-19 Pandemic for a period of five years from 2021 to 2026. This publication was developed by scenario planning approach using a variety of data sources, including BPK audit results, BPK viewpoints, domestic, regional, and global trends, as well as expert input in various disciplines, such as economics, finance, health, sociology, politics, education, environment, and technology.


Driving forces were identified and grouped into a series of ‘critical uncertainties’ and then the experts chose two uncertainties to be the axis for the scenario framework. Then the opportunities and challenges that could occur in the future are outlined in four scenarios stories, namely: 1) Conquering the Ocean, 2) Struggling in the Midst of a Storm, 3) Scattered by the Waves, and 4) Stranded by the Receding Beach. There is different condition and implication in each of the scenarios that will be explained further in this book.

Government’s response and the severity of the pandemic described through four indicators. Monitoring of these indicators play a role to identify which scenarios is becoming a reality in future. To assist in understanding some of the best option that Indonesia can take advantage in these conditions, the opportunities, challenges, and risks that can occur in each of the four scenarios are explained. The proper policy choices by the government in each scenario can mitigating risks and diminishing unfavourable implications.


Lastly, BPK provides viewpoints regarding the themes that need to be anticipated. Five recurring themes needs to be anticipated by the government, that are (1) health system reform; (2) tax reform and fiscal sustainability; (3) the government’s vision and leadership; (4) digital transformation and data governance; and (5) quality of human resources. BPK believes that the government must be prepared to anticipate and face challenges and choice the best policy option to build Indonesia into a formidable nation.